Our defense, and the defense of countries around the world, is built within the context of a stable climate. Climate change has long been described a “threat multiplier.” The phase was used in 2007 by retired high-ranking U.S. officials in a report for CNA, a federally funded security … 2015. The papers in this volume span a suite of climate change repercussions, paying particular attention to national security and human health aspects. One of the biggest threats I identified was the possibility of mass migration driven by climate change. National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, CNA Corporation, Alexandria, Va. 2Testimony of ADM Joseph Prueher, USN (Ret. This is complicated: The second-order effects of attempts to mitigate climate change will have seismic effects for global energy systems. Naval Forces The leaders of the U.S. Navy, Coast Guard, and Marine Corps have recognized the potential impact of climate change on naval forces' missions and have positioned their organizations to make adaptive changes. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. While climate scientists have been aware of the effect of carbon emissions on average worldwide temperatures for several decades, the 2010s have seen consecutive hottest years on record, along with storms, droughts and wildfires of intensifying power and destructiveness. “Shift the Coast Guard to DoD,” Proceedings, 143, No. To avoid these pitfalls in an increasingly complex threat environment, greater flexibility should be permitted in order to enable the Department of Defense to transfer and reprogram funds more easily. June 2013. [Washington]: President of the U.S https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf, 35 United States. The traditional definition of a threat is a combination of two factors: a rival actor’s capability and intent.3 Yet, this construct is only valid and applicable for modeling the behavior of traditional actors, such as states. The assessment judged that global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national security. 5. Climate change poses security risks, according to decades of intelligence reports: Intelligence analysts have agreed since the late 80s that climate change poses serious security risks. A forward presence is required by the Coast Guard to uphold sovereignty. Climate change heightens national security threats for states, and in particular, changes the calculus for the world’s superpower, the United States. 90-105, 4 Sisk, Richard. To reduce the national security implications of climate change, combatant commands are integrating climate-related impacts into their planning cycles, officials said. The Plan Blew Up in Their Faces,” Time, May 7, 2019. https://time.com/5585149/arctic-nuclear-history/, 32 Sergeev, Lev and Maxim Shemetov, “Russia’s first seaborne nuclear powerplant sets sail across Arctic,” Reuters, August 23, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-nuclear-floating-plant/ russias-first-seaborne-nuclear-power-plant-sets-sail-across-arctic-idUSKCN1VD164, 33 United States. In the fiscal year 2020 the figure requested rose $8.8 billion.20 This lack of consistency in recent years is indicative of infrastructure’s low priority at the Pentagon. 12 Homer-Dixon, Thomas, Environmental Scarcity and Intergroup Conflict, World Security: Challenges for a New Century. His research focuses on critical theoretical approaches to security and their application to environmental change, Australian security policy, climate politics, and security dynamics in Asia and the Pacific. Looking forward 20 years, the proliferation of extreme weather events will lead to systemic changes such as a rise in sea levels. The House Intelligence Committee held a hearing on the implications of climate change on national security. The current reprogramming caps are at $10 million for military personnel, $20 million for operation and maintenance, $20 million for procurement, and $10 million for research, development, test, and evaluation.37 These caps should be adjusted to a much higher level if the policy is to counter a clear and recognized danger, such as climate change. This consensus study assessed the national security implications of climate change for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. To conclude, the impact of climate change on national security for the United States requires defining the threat in strategic documents, budgeting for weather damage and degradation, and reconstituting an arctic strategy to meet this arena’s changing dynamics across economic and military interests. Naval Forces addresses both the near- and long-term implications for U.S. naval forces in each of the four areas of the TOR, and provides corresponding findings and recommendations. Climate change was first publicly recognized as a major concern for the Pentagon in May 1990, when the U.S. ), Member, Military Advisory Board, Center for Naval Analyses Corporation report National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, before the Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate, May 9, 2007. Learn about the impact and consequences of climate change and global warming for the environment and our lives. The Coast Guard’s responsibilities in the Arctic are to ensure “the homeland security, safety, and environmental stewardship of U.S. waters.”22 The essence of the Coast Guard’s strategy is founded on three main pillars: enhancing its capability to operate in such a dynamic environment; strengthening and enforcing the international rules-based order; and innovating and adapting through the promotion of resilience and prosperity. While such a move would dramatically change the nature of the Coast Guard and its operations elsewhere in the world, a regional cooperative structure is necessary and viable in the Arctic. There will be nearly 6 billion people in the Asia–Pacific by 2050. The National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy are political documents that guide the administration in its view of the world, and of America’s role in it. National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. In fact, the changing climate can be seen as a high-probability, high-impact security threat presenting new risks around the world. src="https://dnnlgwick.blob.core.windows.net/portals/0/Images/Menu/Menu-StudentInformation.jpg?sr=b&si=DNNFileManagerPolicy&sig=RlmO5gRZfMXaWQWlHQVVup5vdsZtzRjTaF%2FkA7hclWs%3D" style="max-width: 250px;" />, Newport, RI Pell bridge with flowers in background, Books in Learning Commons, , The National Security Significance of a Changing Climate: Risk and Resilience in the 21st Century. https://www.northcom.mil/About-USNORTHCOM/, 30 Brennan, David. During this hearing, the Committee will examine the impacts of a changing climate and associated extreme weather events on U.S. security interests and on … This includes the increased use of military forces for domestic response, building resilience of defense infrastructure, and the corresponding impacts on training and readiness. Climate change was first publicly recognized as a major concern for the Pentagon in May 1990, when the U.S. Chris Farnham is the presenter of the National Security Podcast. Strategically and operationally, this affects both our ally’s and adversary’s behavior leading to the open-ended question—what does it mean if the Department of Defense (DoD) adopts a posture that focuses on the strategic implications of climate change? Not only does this impact where, when, and why the United States gets involved around the world, the economic implications are cross-cutting at home.  Heightened social and political tensions. … There are many resources available that describe the implications of climate change.  Negative impacts on investments and economic competitiveness. 2 Minute Read The planet is warming, from North Pole to South Pole. A 2016 report summarized six possible ways in which climate change would impact national security: threats to the stability of countries, heightened social and political tensions, adverse effects on food prices and availability, increased risks to human health, negative impacts on investments and economic competitiveness, and potential climate discontinuities and secondary surprises.8 Even more concerning, though, is the ongoing upward trend in extreme weather events which are likely to spur these long-term climate-related disruptions. Extreme weather also prevents the requisite conditions for training, which in turn leaves the military unable to adequately maintain readiness levels in preparation of conflict. His research focuses on critical theoretical approaches to security and their application to environmental change, Australian security policy, climate politics, and security dynamics in Asia and the Pacific. 13 Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, “Reports on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense” Department of Defense, January 2019. https://www. Bush noted, “global environmental concerns include such diverse but interrelated issues as stratospheric ozone depletion, climate change, food security, water supply, deforestation, biodiversity and treatment of waste. The United States continues to be involved in myriad international conflicts: military operations in the Yemen; trade policy jousting with China; and an increasingly consequential Arctic becoming a new arena among Great Power competitors. On Wednesday, the White House released a new report, "The National Security Implications of Changing Climate. Stavridis says global climate change, which is causing the polar cap melt, has an especially “pernicious” effect on national security because it is hard to see and often occurs over time. The climate century is upon us: the earth is warming, humans are to blame, and we must take immediate action now to prepare for climate change’s massively disruptive consequences. © Copyright 2018, Journal of International Affairs. Strategically and operationally, this affects both our ally’s and adversary’s behavior leading to the open-ended question—what does it mean if the Department of Defense (DoD) adopts a posture that focuses on the strategic implications of climate change? States National Security October 2003 By Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall Imagining the Unthinkable The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable – to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security. The “Report on National Security Implications of Climate-Related Risks and a Changing Climate” was provided to Congress yesterday. (April 8, 2019). (2019).ht tps: / /www.cong res s .gov/ bi l l /116th- cong res s / house-bi l l /2500/ t e x t#toc - H42DC506687994015B0371FF0D6C134B2. Indeed, both the congressionally-mandated 2018 National Climate Assessment (NCA) and United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports make clear that the window to take collective … In the short-term, the occurrence of resource scarcity such as water shortages is already becoming more prevalent. 2 February 2017. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017/february/shift-coast-guard-dod. The Security Council debate on 17 April was a … National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Intelligence analysts from the National Security …  Adverse effects on food prices and availability. CCS is a nonpartisan research institute of the Council of Strategic Risks that supports policies that will best manage the effects of climate change on security. Equally, failure to address these issues in the relevant fora will exacerbate the security implications of climate change. Testimony from Rod Schoonover: 'The National Security Implications of Climate Change' Updated Jun 8, 2019 at 10:45 AM EST As the flow of refugees and immigration from uninhabitable fragile states increases under climate change, overpopulated areas will become fertile ground for non-state actors to destabilize governments. “What the New US Coast Guard Strategy Tells Us About the Arctic Anno 2019,” High North News, April 25, 2019. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/what-new-us-coast-guard-strategy-tells-us-about-arctic-anno-2019, 24 U.S. Coast Guard, United States Coast Guard Arctic Strategy, April 2019. https://www.uscg.mil/ Portals/0/Images/arctic/Arctic_Strategic_Outlook_APR_2019.pdf, 25 Martinez, Luis, “Why the US Navy sails past disputed artificial islands claimed by China,” ABC News, May 6, 2019. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-navy-sails-past-disputed-artificial-islands-claimed/story?id=60993256, 26 People’s Republic of China, China’s Arctic Policy, January 2018. http://www.scio.gov.cn/ zfbps/32832/Document/1618243/1618243.htm, 27 National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020, H.R. 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